One-Stage Probability In Real Life

Before viewing this page, it would be helpful to first read One-Stage Probability in Gambling.

Example - When Your Number's Up

Published in Oxford University medical journal Bandolier, the table below shows the risk of death with age in the United Kingdom.

Examples:

ANNUAL DEATH RISK IN UK ( 1 in x )
MENWOMEN
Under 1 yr177227
1 - 4 yr43865376
5 - 14 yr833310417
15 - 24 yr19084132
25 - 34 yr12152488
35 - 44 yr6631106
45 - 54 yr279421
55 - 64 yr112178
65 - 74 yr4265
75 - 84 yr1520
ALL AGES136193

Q1. What is your risk of dying?
Q2. What is the "safest" gender and age to be alive?
Q3. What is the "riskiest" age and gender? Why do you think this is?
Q4. Do men or women have the highest risk of dying? Why do you think this is?
Q5. Old Mary's risk of dying is 0.05. How old is she?
Q6. How would this information affect your life?

Answers:

A1.

A2. 5-14 yr women

A3. 75-84 yr men

A4. Men

A5. 75-84 yr

A6. Insurance premiums are based on probabilities.

Questions - Cyber Crime

Q1. According to Carnegie Mellon University's Cylab, approximately 10.2% (about 110) of US children who wrote their personal details on social networking sites and e-mails will be the victims of identity theft. If there are 1000 students in your school, how many students may have their identities stolen?

Q2. A 2006 Harris Interactive survey found that 43% (more than 25) of US teenagers have been cyber-bullied by e-mails, chat rooms or text messages. Cyber-bullying is a federal crime. If there are 1000 students in your school, how many students may have been cyber-bullied?

Answers:

A1. 102 students

A2. 430 students

If you one of these, you are not just a statistic! Please tell a parent, a teacher or the police.